Friday, September 6, 2013

Target is Still Iran: Clear Cutting the Middle East and the Coming Blood Bath (Mapping World War III)




I. Introduction


One of the main reasons that we are on the brink of one of the greatest global catastrophes ever known to human civilization is because people do not have a clear picture of what is happening in the world.
“The chorus of denunciations of the New Hitlers in Teheran and the threat they pose to survival has been marred by a few voices from the back rooms. Former Mossad Chief Ephraim Halevy recently warned that an Israeli attack on Iran ‘could have an impact on us for the next 100 years.’” - Noam Chomsky, August 6, 2008
To remedy the lack of appreciation of this situation, the following maps are being presented to help in the visualization of what the United States of America is proposing, referred to as a crusade by some, World War III (2):
But even with the help of the Israelis - especially with the help of the Israelis! - we couldn't defeat the Iranians, the 'Arabs', the world of Islam or the whole Third World if it should turn against us. We [the CIA] have reason to believe that Soviet strategists well understand this, and that the Third World War that they envision will be one of ourselves against shapeless forces of the Third World, with Soviet Russia ostensibly aloof from it... in their version of the Third World War the United States would be forced into a variety of situations in which it would feel compelled to play the role of a powerful nation but, for all the world to see on it television sets, it would in fact, be powerless." - Miles Copeland, Jr., “The Game Player: Confessions of the CIA's Original Political Operative”, London: Aurum Press, 1989.


II. All the World’s a Stage


The following is a static Map of World Conflicts as of the end of August 2013. Interactive map available at: conflictmap.org

click map to enlarge - source

Below is a map of the most populace Muslim Countries in the World. The correlation between this and the above map is more than just coincidence.

click to enlarge - source

Many believe that the escalation of conflicts in the last few years is related to the need to control the worlds dwindling oil resources. Many more believe that these wars are not just about the control of the oil, but the currency in which oil is traded, the Petrodollar. Even Alan Greenspan admitted that the Iraq invasion was really about oil:
“Greenspan, 81, who served as chairman of the US Federal Reserve for almost two decades, writes: 'I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil.'”
The following two maps are of the World’s Oil Producing Countries and the location of the World’s Oil Reserves. When viewing this map keep in mind that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) controls 81% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves (66% of which are located in the Middle East) and supplies 40% of the world’s oil requirements (the Middle East accounting for 30% of global oil production), and that many of these countries have indicated that they wish to stop using the US dollar in their oil trades. Iran has even gone as far as opening an Oil Bourse (2) and is in the process of totally removing U.S. dollars in their country's oil transactions. Interactive map showing total oil produced by each country available at: Index Mundi.

click map to enlarge - source

Below is a map showing the Major Oil Trade Movements in millions of tonnes for 2012. An excellent interactive map which shows the top 10 oil producers and consumers along with oil movements across the globe is also available at “Oil: Key Players and Movements”.

click map to enlarge - source

III. Controlling Resources and the Middle East


The United States government has denied that the wars in South-Central Asia (2, 3, 4, 5) and the Middle East (2, 3) and the ensuing occupation of Afghanistan (2) and Iraq (2, 3, 4) and their ‘campaigns’ in Africa and Georgia were or are related to the “conquest of oil, gas, water and vital resources”:
“…but undercover the war for energy resources in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia intensified, and they had the neo-con masterplan, which incredibly is being implemented now, which is to destabilize this ‘Arc of Instability,’ this is Pentagon-coined, of course, from the Maghreb through Northern Africa across the Middle East and all the way to Central Asia via Afghanistan/Pakistan – which is the intersection between Central Asia and South Asia – up to the Chinese border in Xinjiang.

“So they needed to implement their strategy, which was conceptionalized finally after 9/11 – this is the Pentagon’s ‘Full Spectrum Dominance’ doctrine…

“…and meanwhile in Central Asia the United States is trying to re-organize itself because suddenly they have noticed that they are losing terrain to who else? China and Russia. This in terms of oil and gas deals between China and Russia themselves, between Turkmenistan and China, between all these players and Iran as well – Russia and China have very close cooperation with Iran in their oil and gas fields.”
The U.S. administration’s denial of the motives for waging war endure to this day as it continues its aggressive stance towards Iran. The rhetoric from the U.S. government as to the reasons why it has been forced to confront Iran have changed multiple times during the last few years, none of which have been the admissions of it being related to the access and control of resources:
“Iran not only possesses massive oil reserves and an economic, political, and militarily strategic location in relation to Russia and China, it also boasts a population of 76 million….

“With frank honesty, the report opens by declaring Iran a confounding nation that undermines America's interests and influence in the Middle East. Not once is it mentioned that the Islamic Republic poses any direct threat to the security of the United States itself. In fact, Iran is described as a nation intentionally avoiding provocations that would justify military operations to be conducted against it.

“Iran's motivations are listed as being ideological, nationalistic, and security driven - very understandable considering the nations to its east and west are currently occupied by invading armies.”
The following two maps show the approximate locations of U.S. Military Bases in South-Central Asia and the Middle East, and some of the Existing and Proposed Oil and Gas Pipelines.

click map to enlarge - source
click map to enlarge - source

IV. Iran-Iraq-Syria Pipeline, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and the South Pars Gas Field


One important point to note regarding the above map is that it predates the 2011 Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline deal, “a deal for the construction of the Middle East’s largest gas pipeline, which would transit Iranian gas from Iran’s South Pars gas field to Europe via Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea.” The signing of a defense agreement between Iran and Syria in 2006 had tied the fate of both these countries together - the agreement affirming that an attack on one, was an attack on the other - and foreshadowed the pipeline deal.

This agreement between Iran, Iraq, and Syria is the primary reason why Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been heavily funding the Syrian rebels:
“Saudi Arabia and Qatar are paying salaries to rebel forces fighting in the Syrian revolt against President Bashar al-Assad, an Arab diplomat said on Saturday. ‘The payment has been going on for months and the agreement was made on April 2 [2012] by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with logistical organization from Turkey where some Free Syrian Army factions are based,’ said the source, who requested anonymity. “
In 2009, Assad refused a proposal by Qatar to run a gas pipeline from Qatar’s North gas field “through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey”. Instead “Assad pursued negotiations for an alternative $10 billion pipeline plan with Iran”:
“The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline plan was a ‘direct slap in the face’ to Qatar's plans. No wonder Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, in a failed attempt to bribe Russia to switch sides, told President Vladmir Putin that ‘whatever regime comes after’ Assad, it will be ‘completely’ in Saudi Arabia's hands and will ‘not sign any agreement allowing any Gulf country to transport its gas across Syria to Europe and compete with Russian gas exports’, according to diplomatic sources. When Putin refused, the Prince vowed military action.”
The following three maps show the location of the Proposed Iran-Iraq-Syria Gas Pipeline - marked in yellow in the first and by a dashed line in the second - and the Location of the South Pars Gas Field - the big red patch right in the middle of the Persian Gulf, just north of Qatar. It is important to note that this is the largest discovered gas field in the world, dwarfing all others in comparison (see table below).

click map to enlarge - source

click map to enlarge - source

click map to enlarge - source - a detailed map of the region available at The Library of Congress

click map to enlarge - source

V. The Shia Crescent and the Levant


This pipeline connecting Iran, Iraq, and Syria is planned to be constructed along the Shia Crescent, “the notionally crescent-shaped region of the Middle East where the majority population is Shia or where there is a strong Shia minority in the population.” It is important to note that large Shia “minorities also exist in Lebanon, Turkey, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, India and the UAE”.

Below you will find a map showing the outline of The Shia Crescent (note the relationship between this map and that of the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline), and a map of the Shia–Sunni Demographics in the Middle East (approximately “80–90% of the world's Muslims are Sunni and 10–20% are Shia”).

click map to enlarge - source

click map to enlarge - source

Some have gone as far as to say that this connection, common religion, alliance if you wish, will be broken once the dust settles on the Syrian civil war, and that Iran will be “forced out” of the Levant, “also known as the region of Syria or the Eastern Mediterranean.” A gargantuan task (2) to be sure:
“Lebanon’s total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precendent for the entire Arab world including Egypt, Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is already following that track. The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unqiue areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel’s primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi’ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan.” - “A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties”, by Oded Yinon (pdf)
Below you will find two maps of the Levant, and a map showing the change in the Political Landscape of the Middle East that might take place if the attempt to destroy the Shia Crescent is successful.

source

click map to enlarge - source

click map to enlarge - source

VI. Israel and Turkey and Supplying Europe With Energy


Considering that we are a fossil-fuel based society that has reached its maximum global rate of petroleum extraction, peak oil, the players in this conflict have not just been limited to those mentioned above. With natural gas picking up some of the slack and supplying more of our energy needs, countries with access to and the need for this resource are now heavily invested in this conflict, two of the most influential players from the Middle East being Israel and Turkey.

As “Europe's gas consumption is expected to increase from 502 billion cubic metres, in 2005, to 815 billion cubic metres in 2030”, they will have to look beyond Russia to meet their demand. This means that countries that control gas fields and those with the infrastructure to deliver the supply to Europe will benefit:
“Mr. Fischer is convinced that Europe’s energy shortages last January [2008], caused by a pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas, were the turning point for the new European gas pipeline. Called Nabucco and stretching for 2,050 miles, the new pipeline is expected to cost 8 billion euros ($11.4 billion). Europe cannot wait for another crisis to begin to diversify its suppliers, he argues.”
Below you will find two maps; the first is a Map of the Proposed Nabucco Gas Pipeline, the objective of the project being to “connect the European Union better to the natural gas sources in the Caspian Sea and the Middle East regions.” The second map shows the “current [2012] situation in the southern gas corridor” with the Proposed Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) marked in red, the purpose of this pipeline is the same as that of the proposed Nabucco pipeline, to help Europe diversify its energy supply.

click map to enlarge - source

click map to enlarge - source

As for Israel, aside from their obvious interests in the region (2, 3), “the newfound offshore gas fields of Tamar, Leviathan, and Tanin” have the potential to give “Israel a historic chance at energy independence and could transform the region's geopolitics”:
“Instead of being an energy-scarce nation amid Middle East oil giants, many of them hostile, Israel now faces a future as a fuel producer in its own right—likely as an exporter and supplier to some of its neighbors, a development that could dramatically alter the region's geopolitics….

“‘This is going to change the overall way of the economy of Israel,’ says Shaul Zemach, director general of Israel's Ministry of Energy and Water Resources. ‘It's like a domino—it's going to have a domino effect on all of the markets.’ Quite simply, he said, it's a ‘game changer.’”
The U.S.-Israeli consortium developing Israel's Leviathan natural gas field estimates it will cost $4.5 billion to develop the offshore well, not including infrastructure for exports”:
“The group has said export options include building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, a pipeline to a neighbouring country, or even bringing in a new technology known as a floating LNG vessel, which alone would cost $3 billion to $4 billion to construct….

“The forecast came as Israel, long reliant on energy imports, struggles to find the balance between how much gas to keep and how much to export.”
Israel’s claims to the gas fields, however, are not undisputed:
“…Lebanon believes it also has a claim to the Leviathan field. The countries are technically at war and do not recognise either land or sea borders. Israel has simply unilaterally declared its maritime boundaries with Lebanon. Based on its boundaries on land, Israel established a maritime zone that veers well to the north, an area that encompasses all the known major gas fields….

“Shmuel Bar, a director at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, said borders are ‘a matter of agreement between countries, and for countries that don't agree to submit themselves to law, then the whole issue of international law isn't very relevant.’ Lebanon's Shiite movement, Hezbollah, and its primary backer, Iran, on the other hand, have no doubt as to who owns what. Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Qazanfar Roknabadi, went so far as to claim in November that most of the Leviathan find belongs to Lebanon.

“Israeli officials bristled at such suggestions. Israel's minister of national infrastructure, Uzi Landau, responded: ‘We will not hesitate to use our force and strength to protect not only the rule of law but the international maritime law.’…

“Israel is also mulling plans to sell its gas to Europe, possibly through Cyprus or via a pipeline to Greece. This, so the thinking goes, would make it politically difficult for foes to dispute the country's claim, let alone attack gas infrastructure, since other nations would be depending on it. Giora Eiland, a retired major general in Israel's military, former head of the National Security Council and a consultant to companies involved in the gas exploration, said: ‘Our potential enemies will be much more careful to do something against a facility that Europe has an interest in.’”
Below you will find a map of the Cyprus, Tamar, Leviathan, and Tanin Gas Fields and the location of the disputed maritime boundary – ‘disputed’ because, as was reported above, “Based on its boundaries on land, Israel established a maritime zone that veers well to the north”.

click map to enlarge - source

VII. Afterthoughts


What has been happening is the last few decades is the demonization of the Muslim world through war propaganda which “glorifies military indoctrination as the highest form of patriotism.” This was the tactic used after 911 in the buildup to the war with Afghanistan as well as the invasion of Iraq. Fortunately for all of us, this tactic has, up to this point, failed to work for Iran. However, that has not prevented Western governments from applying pressure and trying all means necessary to weaken Iran before the proposed strike.

The above maps clearly indicate the game at play; Iran is considered a threat to the American Empire and must be dealt with, irrelevant of the consequences, or so the hawks (2, 3) proposing this madness would like us to believe.

What will happen if citizens of the U.S. allow their government to continue to threaten sovereign nations in an attempt to obtain control of the world’s resources is anyone’s guess; however, it is safe to assume that this endeavor will be bloody and require nation building. The boundaries of countries were redrawn after World War I and World War II (1, 2), and that is exactly what the end result will be once the dust settles after this world war.

The following two maps show what the Middle East as we know it looks like, and how the Middle East may look like if we continue down this path. The plans for this New Middle East were revealed in 2006 by retired Lieutenant-Colonel Ralph Peters. The map, with the redrawn borders of the Middle East, indicates that Turkey would lose a large portion of its territory while Iraq would be split into three autonomous regions. This map also shows plans to partition Pakistan and reduce Iran’s territory, along with numerous other imperial agendas.

Present Middle East

click map to enlarge

New Middle East

click map to enlarge - source

The field of battle has been and is continuously shifting in this region; from the expulsion of U.S. military presence in Iraq (2, 3) to the proposed faux exit of NATO forces from Afghanistan (2) to the destabilization of Africa to the anticipated bombardment of Syria, so let’s take a closer look at these existing and proposed oil and gas pipelines. This is what these wars are about, the control of resources.

Below you will find five additional maps on proposed and existing oil and gas pipelines for this region. They range in complexity and provide a good overview of the game at play. We will return to this topic at a future date, once all parties involved have made their moves for this round. Please note that we will also at some point discuss the human toll of what’s taking place, the economics of war, and the related environmental catastrophe that we face due to our thirst for fossil fuels.

click map to enlarge - source

click map to enlarge - source

click map to enlarge - source #1, source #2

click map to enlarge - source

click map to enlarge - source


i. References


  • All options on the table? - by Noam Chomsky, August 6, 2008

  • VIDEO: From Boston to Pakistan, Pentagon Officials Claim Entire World is a Battlefield - report from DEMOCRACY NOW!, May 16, 2013

  • One, Two, Three, Four, When Are We Going to Go to War? Five, Six, Seven, Eight, Are You Out of Your F__king Mind! (What We Should Know Before Waging War on Syria) - chycho, August 31, 2013

  • Remarks by the President Upon Arrival - George W. Bush, September 16, 2001

  • World War III began in May 2006: Building the New Map of the Middle East in Real Time - chycho, June 4, 2013

  • Bringing On “World War III” - Analysis by Bill Berkowitz, July 20 2006

  • Comment regarding World War III from Miles Copeland - wiki

  • Miles Copeland, Jr. - wiki

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  • War For Oil? - By Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr., February 27, 2002

  • Dollar no longer primary oil currency as China begins to sell oil using Yuan - by Ken Schortgen Jr, September 12, 2012

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  • Greenspan admits Iraq was about oil, as deaths put at 1.2m - by Peter Beaumont and Joanna Walters, 16 September 2007

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  • SHIA CRESCENT

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  • An Apology from Canada to Palestine and the Rest of the World: The 10 Most Shameful Minutes in Canadian History - chycho, November 30, 2012

  • Regarding Israel and Palestine, and the new offensive in Gaza - chycho, November 16, 2012

  • A Dinner Conversation: Israel and Armenia, Oppression and Genocides, Reality and Denials - chycho, December 11, 2012

  • New Natural Gas Wealth Means Historic Change for Israel - by Sharon Udasin, July 3, 2012

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  • World War III began in May 2006: Building the New Map of the Middle East in Real Time - chycho, June 4, 2013

  • World War I: Interactive Map - Worldology.com

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  • Despite Planned Troop Withdrawal, Special Ops & Private Forces Prepare to Continue Afghan War - DEMOCRACY NOW!, FEBRUARY 13, 2013

  • 10 Facts About US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - Countdown to Drawdown

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  • The Grand Chessboard - wiki

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  • Central Asia – Asia’s central focus - July 14, 2008

  • The Other Energy Superpower: Central Asia? (Part II of II) - October 18, 2011

  • Energy- He who pays for the pipelines calls the tune - 19/07/2009

  • Middle East Pipelines map - Crude Oil (petroleum) pipelines - Natural Gas pipelines - Products pipelines - 6-MAY-08
  • 7 comments:

    1. What Are We Doing in Syria? - "Guest host Phil Donahue examines the deadly civil war in Syria and the consequences of another American intervention in the Middle East. Our guests include NPR correspondent Deborah Amos and historian and analyst Andrew Bacevich."

      ReplyDelete
    2. Good article chycho.

      Another pipeline starts in Turkey.
      http://www.trans-adriatic-pipeline.com

      ReplyDelete
      Replies
      1. Thanks, Rachel... and thanks for the link. It's a scramble to see who gets to Europe first I guess. Wonder how this one will play out connecting Turkey and Greece. When I get a chance I'll add this map to the post as well. Thanks again.

        Delete
    3. Such a post !This going to change the overall way of our economy. And we bringing a new technology to our country.

      ReplyDelete